March 15, 2004
The Record On George McPhee
Last August, in the wake of Caps defenseman Calle Johansson's retirement (interrupted last week to return to the NHL with the Maple Leafs), I had this to say about Washington Caps GM George McPhee and his ability to evaluate and develop young talent:
[S]ix seasons ought to be more than enough time for current Caps GM George McPhee and the team's minor league affiliate to have developed at least one impact player. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. Instead, outside of Jagr, Robert Lang, Mike Grier and Michael Nylander, the Caps are literally held together with spit and bailing wire.
Today in the Washington Post, Jason La Canfora hits the point in finer detail in a larger piece detailing the collapse of the Caps this season:
The Capitals have not brought an impact defenseman into the organization since acquiring Mark Tinordi in 1995, and have not had a drafted defenseman spend an entire season in Washington since [Ken] Klee, [Brendan] Witt and [Sergei] Gonchar broke through in 1995-96, well before McPhee was hired in the summer of 1997.
Recent forays into free agency for a defenseman have been unsuccessful -- neither Dmitri Mironov nor Sylvain Cote made it through the duration of their contracts -- and as older players such as Joe Reekie and Johansson moved on, no prospects were ready to fill the void. The Capitals selected a skilled defenseman, Nick Boynton, ninth overall in 1997. However, they could not agree to contract terms with him, McPhee declared Boynton would never play in the NHL and the team allowed him to reenter the 1999 draft. Boynton, 25, is currently playing 23 minutes per game for playoff-bound Boston.
The decision to let Boynton go back in the draft has proved disastrous in the long run. Combined with the retirement of Johansson and the loss of Klee to free agency, there really wasn't anything left on the blue line to help keep goalie Olie Kolzig out of trouble. As I pointed out last August, the core of this year's team remained players who were drafted and developed under former general manager David Poile -- a man fired in favor of McPhee after the 1996-97 season. Since then, the record of McPhee and his staff in identifying talent has been less than stellar. As La Canfora points out:
Over the past six seasons, dating from 1998-99, Washington's forwards and defensemen have played a combined 8,676 man-games, based on 18 skaters per game over an 82-game season. Yet, players drafted in that span have accounted for only 462 of those games, a paltry 5.3 percent. Those players have netted a total of just 26 goals. By contrast, Detroit forward Henrik Zetterberg, 23, taken 210th overall in 1999, has already scored 36 goals over 128 games in two NHL seasons.
"You have to draft better than that to win in this league," said one NHL team official when informed of Washington's recent draft record. "This is not going to get it done if you want to be a contender year after year."
I'm willing to be forgiving of McPhee's decision to dismiss Ron Wilson and bring in the overmatched Bruce Cassidy as head coach. I'm even willing to forgive the organization for acquiring Jaromir Jagr and Robert Lang in the hopes their presence would push the team over the top and deep into the playoffs. But what I'm not willing to excuse, and the fans in Washington shouldn't either, is a talent evaluation team that hasn't been able to filter young prospects into the lineup with the aim of replacing them one day.
Luckily for McPhee, his boss is far more forgiving, as Caps owner Ted Leonsis has announced that McPhee is going to be back for at least the 2004-05 season, along with Hanlon. The Caps plan at this point seems to be to wait out the lockout while hoping that all of their young prospects will get a full season to play together at the team's minor league affiliate in Portland, Maine. That might not be a bad plan, as some have rated the team's minor league system as one of the tops in the game today.
But if there is any sort of NHL season next year, the Caps could be in deep trouble. As one unidentified team official told La Canfora:
"If there is [NHL] hockey next year, I don't know what we'll do," said one member of the organization who asked not to be identified. "I don't even want to think about what our team would look like."
Sounds like hockey fans ought to hold onto their wallets when the bill comes to renew their season ticket plan for 2004-05. AHL hockey at NHL prices doesn't sound like too much of a bargain to me.
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What is the status of the Caps' scouting department? 90% of the time, weak scouting makes for a bad GM. Exhibit A was the pre-Marvin Lewis Bengals. Is Leonsis not putting the money into that part of the team?
Posted by:
at March 15, 2004 01:31 PM
Interesting that Hockey's Future rates the Caps' prospects so highly, and they aren't even counting Eminger, Sutherby and Pettinger. If they're right, that bodes well.
But hockey player development is a strange thing. People keep harping on Zetterberg as an example of how the Red Wings do so much better than everyone else. But who did Detroit take BEFORE Zetterberg that year?
Posted by:
at March 15, 2004 02:39 PM
The difference between good drafting and bad drafting is a pretty fine one since so few picks actually end up developing the way they were projected to. It's pretty shocking that McPhee has done such a bad job though. It looks like he'll be going for pure volume over the next 2 years though so something has to pan out.
Boynton was a huge oversight. Not only is he playing 23 minutes a game for Boston, he was an Eastern Conference All-Star.
Posted by:
at March 15, 2004 02:54 PM
I think the draft record is the inevitable result of the free agent and trade choices the Caps have made. Ron Delorme - the Canuck Chief Scout - will tell you that the issue is seldom scouting and almost always post scouting development.
If you do not provide quality opportunity, you won't produce players. It's a hidden cost of using trades or free agent signings to fill every hole.
It is also easy to forget that, league wide, 90% of draft picks bomb. Only about 30 drafts a year will eventually qualify for an NHL pension.
Posted by:
at March 15, 2004 03:13 PM
I agree completely. Even assuming there is a season next year, I am not sure that I will be going to that many Cap games.
Posted by:
at March 15, 2004 06:53 PM
Well, let's not completely knock the Caps' scouting crew. After all they have uncovered Todd Rohloff, Colin Forbes, and Kip Miller.
Posted by:
at March 16, 2004 12:39 AM
AHL hockey at NHL prices...welcome to Chicago. At least here we have an actual AHL team to spend our money on; and looking at attendence, many people have taken Wirtz up on his offer...
Posted by:
at March 16, 2004 09:15 PM
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