July 21, 2004
Baseball Comebacks, Or Just A Hail Mary
Think you're favorite baseball team still has a shot at the pennant? When you want to take a reality check, Alan Schwarz of the New York Times says the date you need to pay attention to on the calendar is July 31:
Since the leagues split into divisions in 1969 (not including strike-shortened years of 1981 and 1994), an overwhelming majority of eventual division champions (109 of 151) stood in first place on July 31. Of the 42 that did come back, two-thirds of them (28) hit the trading deadline no more than three and a half games behind.
Clubs four games to six and a half games out as August began, usually considered contenders, came back only 8 percent of the time, less than 1 time in 12. Those clubs were far more likely to finish the season at least 10 games out than to truly remain in the race.
For the detailed breakdown of your club's chances, click here.
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How many of those comeback clubs were behind either the Red Sox or the Cubs in the standings?
Posted by:
at July 21, 2004 04:08 PM
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07:00 AM