November 09, 2006
In The New NHL, The Physical Game Will Cost You
At least that's the conclusion of some recent analysis from The Forechecker, who took a closer look at the 2005-06 season and found teams that dished out the punishment on the ice didn't seem to be able to put the puck in the net:
When I ran the figures for the Ratio of Hits For/Against on a team-by-team basis against their Ratio of Goals For/Against, I came up with something surprising; a correlation value of -0.40! That suggests that teams which outhit their opponents end up getting outscored by them (and hence, why Bobby Clarke is out of work).
The relationship isn't particularly strong, but it is stronger than many other links found so far. Perhaps the real heroes on a team are the guys who take Hits in order to make plays, holding onto the puck for that extra split-second before getting knocked on their kiester.
Interesting, but should we really be surprised? In an era where players complain very loudly about the new rules of enforcement, it isn't exactly shocking to discover that teams that rely more heavily on punishing their opponents physically would pick up more penalties, spend more time playing shorthanded, and wind up scoring fewer goals.
Still, The Forechecker is doing yeoman's work these days with the data. Stop by and say hi.
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at November 9, 2006 10:20 AM
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